One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely, is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites are able to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions. Where what's good in the short run for the elite is bad for the society as a whole, there's a real risk of the elite doing things that would bring the society down in the long run.
Jedna shema nevolje koja svakako predviđa kolaps jest sukob kratkotrajnih interesa one manjine koja odlučuje i dugoročnih interesa društva kao cjeline, posebno ako je elita u mogućnosti izolirati se od posljedica svojih djela. Ono što je kratkoročno dobro za manjinu, dugoročno je loše za društvo u cjelini. Postoji rizik da elita radi ono što će dugoročno oštetiti društvo.